October 14, 2026
Reading the Demographic Study
The decline in enrollment in our public schools is concerning, particularly the loss of students at the transitions from fifth to sixth grade and from eighth to ninth grade.
Based on our own estimate, almost one-third of Millburn’s high-school-aged residents do not attend Millburn High School. That raises a real question: why are so many families choosing other options?
Families move to Millburn and Short Hills in large part because of our public schools. If prospective residents start to believe they may need to pay for private school as well as our property taxes, that could weaken our town’s appeal — and, over time, put our property values at risk.
Below is what the district’s own demographic study actually shows.
Source: Demographic Study for the Millburn Township Public Schools, Statistical Forecasting LLC, June 2026. All figures are the district’s own consultant’s.
1. Students are leaving at the door to the high school
The share of 8th graders who enroll at Millburn High School the following year hit its two lowest points of the decade in the last two years — both worse than the first year of the pandemic.
| Year | Grade 8 | → Grade 9 | Students lost | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 → 20-21 (COVID) | 348 | 318 | 30 | 0.914 |
| 2022-23 → 23-24 | 378 | 359 | 19 | 0.950 |
| 2023-24 → 24-25 | 381 | 314 | 67 | 0.824 |
| 2024-25 → 25-26 | 341 | 300 | 41 | 0.880 |
The 5th-to-6th grade transition also hit a decade low (0.906). Compounding the report’s five-year average ratios, roughly 16% of a 4th grade cohort is gone before 9th grade.
The report states plainly that the district does not know why: determining the reasons would require exit and entrance interviews, which are not conducted. The forecast then treats the recent attrition as permanent, assuming ~11% of every future 8th grade class will not enroll at MHS.
2. Enrollment decline is accelerating
Enrollment is 4,413.5 in 2025-26 — down 467 students (-9.6%) since 2016-17, with three straight years of decline. The drops in 2024-25 (-164.5) and 2025-26 (-125) both exceed the first COVID year (-113). The report identifies a mechanism shift: in-migration used to offset the district’s chronic negative kindergarten replacement; in the last two years it reversed to net outward migration.
3. The prior study’s projections missed badly
| Year | 2023 report projected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | 4,744 | 4,703 | +0.9% |
| 2024-25 | 4,773 | 4,538.5 | +5.2% |
| 2025-26 | 4,752 | 4,413.5 | +7.7% |
Elementary (PK-4) error reached +12.9% — an over-projection of 211 students. The report cites the professional standard of ~1% error per year and concedes it was exceeded in years two and three. Three years of staffing and facilities planning rested on a forecast that assumed stability while the district was losing ~150 students a year.
4. The optimistic scenario depends on housing that isn’t built
Projected stabilization (4,293 by 2030-31) assumes all 481 proposed apartment units are built and occupied within five years. Of those, only 62 units are under construction. The largest development (195 units) has zoning approval but no building permits issued. If the units slip, the operative figure is the baseline: 4,209, a decline of 204.5.
The report’s independent housing-turnover analysis produces a scenario it calls “more plausible” that lands at 4,004 by 2030 — 450 students below today and well below both headline projections.
5. Capacity is mismatched, not simply surplus
Wyoming is over capacity today (-36) and still over in 2030-31 (-19). Glenwood moves from +70 seats to at capacity (-2). Deerfield holds ~140 empty seats throughout. Millburn Middle opens up 179 seats as grades 5-8 shed 209 students. The report raises none of the boundary or utilization questions this implies. Capacity figures date from the 2023 facilities plan and may be stale.
6. A likely error in the report
The “adjusted for housing growth” projection produces lower high school enrollment than the baseline in four of five years (2026-27 grade 9: baseline 329, adjusted 267). Elementary and middle school behave correctly; only grades 9-12 are inverted. Adding housing cannot reduce enrollment — this appears to be a construction error, which would mean the district’s optimistic case has never been correctly computed for the high school.
What this does and doesn’t establish
Some of the decline is outside the board’s control: births are flat (146 in 2025 vs. 155 in 2011), the under-5 population is shrinking, and home sales have fallen to 2009 levels. The district’s core strength also holds — roughly half of each kindergarten class is children born outside Millburn whose families moved here for the schools, a ratio stable through the pandemic.
What the data does not explain is the loss at grade transitions. The report cannot distinguish dissatisfaction from long-standing private, parochial, or county magnet enrollment patterns. That is the point: the district has not asked.
What we think needs to happen
We need to understand what is driving these decisions. Is the district systematically seeking feedback from families who leave, and from students themselves? Are we identifying concerns that the district could address?
And, most importantly, is there an action plan to reverse this trend — with clear priorities, measurable goals, and regular public updates?
This deserves to be a district priority. Behind the enrollment numbers are families making decisions about their children’s future — and those decisions matter to our entire community.